Examiner straw poll: seat for SF, trouble afoot for Labour?

Labour's Willie Penrose is facing a tough battle for his seat in Longford/Westmeath, and Sinn Féin's Paul Hogan could be heading for the Dáil, if a Westmeath Examiner online straw poll is anything to go by.

Although the poll - which opened on Tuesday and ended today (Friday, polling day) - was taken by hundreds of respondents, it comes with a massive health warning given the vagaries of "e-democracy".

But the final figures are curiously close to polls conducted nationwide, which suggest that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will take a combined 48-49% of the first preference vote, with a hung Dáil a possible outcome.

Westmeath Examiner respondents put Fine Gael on 23.5%, Fianna Fáil on 24%, Sinn Féin on 20.5% and independents and others on 24%, 17% of which is directed towards Independent Alliance candidates.

At the bottom of the ladder in our straw poll is Labour with 8%. Although this is slightly higher than the national forecast of 6.6%, it would represent a catastrophic vote collapse for the party in Longford/Westmeath (from 26.71% in 2011), and would likely put Willie Penrose's long-held seat in jeopardy.

Deputy Penrose, who has been in the Dáil for 24 years, has been widely tipped to retain his seat and maintain his poll-topping tradition, and he has a history of defying national trends - the 1997 election being an example.

But a first preference vote much higher than 8% would be required to keep him in contention.

In addition, Labour's traditionally strong party organisation in Westmeath was left in disarray after being whipped at the 2014 local elections, and this - coupled with Deputy Penrose's decision to resign his "super junior" ministry over the 2012 closure of Columb Barracks, Mullingar - could leave the party battling for the fourth seat.

Going on its figures, Fianna Fáil will retain its seat in Longford/Westmeath, with incumbent Robert Troy expected to poll strongly.

Meanwhile, a forecasted 20.5% vote for Sinn Féin means that former Athlone mayor Paul Hogan could become the first Longford/Westmeath SF deputy in the Dáil since Ruairí Ó Brádaigh (1957-61), and the first from County Westmeath since Laurence Ginnell (1918-23).

The republican party polled robustly in Westmeath in the 2014 local elections, but how it will fare in Longford is another question.

The jury is also out as to how the Fine Gael and Independent vote will go. If FG manages to attract no more than the disappointing (and unlikely) 23.5% suggested in our straw poll, it will make it extremely difficult for the Government party to retain two seats in Longford/Westmeath.

Among the three candidates, James Bannon - who has a loyal following in Longford, and who will surely benefit handsomely from transfers - will be the favourite to retain his seat.

If Athlone's Gabrielle McFadden is to rejoin him in Leinster House, or if Mullingar's Cllr Peter Burke is to make his parliamentary bow, then FG will have to poll closer to or in excess of 30%.

With the Independent Alliance polling at 17%, one of them - Athlone's Kevin 'Boxer' Moran, Mullingar's Brian Fagan or Longford's James Morgan - could be in the scrap for the final seat, along with Penrose and a Fine Gael candidate.

But all will be told tomorrow when the count takes place in Keenagh; never underestimate the electorate's ability to surprise.