Does a change in our weather indicate a change in our climate?

Generating a brighter future for Mullingar

The summer of 2023 has been a bit of a washout when it comes to the weather. Scientists agree that the volatile and unprecedented changes we are seeing in our normal weather patterns this year are clear indications of the slow but steady background changes that are taking place in our climate.

Scientists also agree that these changes are being accelerated by human activity, namely the release of huge amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

It is clear that we have experienced some very unseasonal weather this year in Ireland. Met Éireann has announced that June 2023 will be recorded as the hottest June on record. Provisional data shows that Ireland has experienced its first June with 16+°C average temperatures, exceeding the previous June record which held for 83 years. June 2023 is set to be more than half a degree higher than June 1940.

This was followed swiftly by the wettest July ever on record. Met Éireann reported that Ireland had 217% of its 1981-2010 Long term Average (LTA) rainfall in July 2023. July 2023 also had more than four times the amount of rain observed in July 2022 and more than twice that observed in July 2021. August is shaping up to be one of the wettest on record too.

We are seeing unprecedented and record breaking weather events, not just here but all over the world. Many Irish holiday makers had to be evacuated from their accommodation in some popular holiday destinations in Southern Europe due to extreme heat and forest fires.

Changes in our weather patterns are not necessarily indicative of broader changes to our climate, but this year they are. What we are experiencing is climate change and these patterns are likely to continue to change.

Climate change not only means changes in the average climate such as temperature but also changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events

One change we’ve experienced this year that is likely to become more normal in the future is in our rainfall patterns. We’re seeing more frequent, more intense downpours followed by extended dry spells.

These changes have already had an impact on many aspects of our lives and these impacts are likely to intensify in the years ahead. For example, agriculture has faced challenges as traditional growing seasons become less predictable. The seemingly incessant rain in July made for some very late silage cuts.

Heavier and more prolonged rainfall can also result in increased run-off from land into water courses and coastal waters resulting in greater levels of water pollution.

The changing weather patterns in Ireland are not only affecting humans, but also plant and animal species. In June, Inland Fisheries Ireland suspended salmon fishing in parts of Mayo and Galway due to prolonged warm and dry weather conditions.

The hot weather resulted in water temperatures to exceed the 20⁰C threshold in both locations over a number of days. Freshwater fish species such as salmon and trout can suffer ‘thermal stress’ arising from an increase in water temperature. Ireland is already at one of the lowest latitudes at which salmon can survive. Are we seeing the beginning of the end of salmon in Ireland - a species that we take for granted and is so intrinsic to our identity and mythology?

How much is our climate likely to change in the future?

The Paris Agreement, which has been signed by most countries in the world, including Ireland, sets out a global framework to avoid dangerous climate change by seeking to limit global warming to well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. If our emissions continue as they are now and we do nothing to reduce them, then global temperatures will exceed these targets by the end of this century, making many places on the planet uninhabitable.

The extent to which our climate changes in the future is down to us. In Ireland, our target is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2030 and to reduce them to zero by 2050. To do this we must generate our electricity and heat from renewable sources and we must keep fossil fuels in the ground.

Every sector of the economy has been given a GHG emissions target to reach and we must all work together to make these changes. Many of the changes necessary will be uncomfortable for us but we will face an even more uncomfortable future if we don’t make these changes.

This transition will take time and investment but the good news is that it is already happening and it is a huge area of innovation and job growth, providing economic opportunities for current and future generations. If we continue with this change, we will mitigate the most severe impacts of climate change, have a more secure energy supply, create jobs in the new green sector and have a cleaner environment.

If you want to know more how you can make a change locally and learn about some local renewable energy initiatives, you can find out more on the Mullingar Sustainable Energy Community website at www.mullingarsec.ie.