‘We need to plan for future in this new global order’

Síofra Grant

Global diplomacy is frequently pushed to the limit in the modern age, and that was highlighted when the US president, Donal Trump, clashed with Europe over Greenland.

In the lead-up to The World Economic Forum in Davos, the ties between the US and EU seemed primed to snap – but then President Trump made it clear he would not use force to take over island and abandoned his almost obsessive bid for control. In his speech at Davos, he referred to Greenland as Iceland several times.

The launch of his new ‘Board of Peace’ ruffled feathers even more.

“I mean you could call it a poor man’s version of the UN,” says Declan Power, defence analyst and Mullingar native, “but it’s more like a rich man’s version of the UN.”

Declan is a former soldier in the Irish Army and is now a defence analyst; he is also the author of ‘The Siege of Jadotville’ which was adapted for the screen.

“It’s Donald Trump continuing to rewrite the world order isn’t it?” he said.

In a Dáil discussion on January 22, Tánaiste Simon Harris confirmed that Ireland had not joined the Board of Peace.

Declan said: “The bottom line is I doubt very much whether you’ll see Ireland get involved with this ‘Board of Peace’. But never say never.

“You haven’t really seen any major European take-up, not even the UK, which could have been considered the US’s closest ally.”

Minister for Enterprise Peter Burke was in attendance at The World Economic Forum and gave his views on the Board of Peace.

“The UN has a unique mandate to maintain international peace and security, and the legitimacy to bring nations together. Ireland’s commitment to the United Nations and the primacy of the UN Charter is without question.

“Ireland has received an invitation from the United States to join the proposed Board of Peace. We will need to give this careful consideration, noting that in doing so, we will coordinate closely with our EU and wider European partners.”

Many world leaders have condemned the new entity.

Former President Mary Robinson on RTÉ said it was “a board of power for one person,” and, “a delusion of power”.

The board costs $1 billion per country to join permanently. As well as that, President Trump will chair for life, and pick his successor.

But not everyone is allowed to get involved, and the US president withdrew an invite to Canada, following their PM Mark Carney’s address at Davos in which he said middle powers should adapt to a changing global order marked by geopolitical tensions and the decline of the rules-based international system.

The Greenland situation and Mark Carney’s address highlight the changing tides of power on the Global stage: but where does it leave Ireland?

Ireland remains in a unique position between the EU and the US, and we are heavily reliant on American foreign direct investment.

In the case of a trade war, Ireland is likely to be heavily affected, especially with the numerous tech and pharmaceutical companies from the US that are based here.

Minister Peter Burke said: “While my position remains that tariffs are bad for all parties to trade, the US 15% tariff has largely bedded in reasonably smoothly for many sectors.

“While some remain exposed, and the EU continues to pursue dialogue with the US on this, trade with the US was up last year and the vast majority of Irish businesses continue to trade successfully with America, with others now seeking to diversify.

“Regardless of tariffs, multinational companies still require an EU base in order to access the European Single Market of almost half a billion customers, a market which is core to many of their business models. So a change in US tariffs should not impact this requirement, and we have seen continued investment and expansion announcements in the last 12 months.”

Declan Power says Ireland needs to play its hand right and prepare. “We need to start playing out different scenarios and talking about it in the media and in the public sphere so you know the different possibilities.

“Rather than just say well we’ll do this or will we do that, we’ll walk ourselves through it.

“We constantly have people in different spheres or on the opposition constantly warning about different wars and all that.

“But what we don’t think about is that it’s far less likely for us in the geopolitical situation, than getting sucked into a trade war where we have to make a decision.

“If we stayed aside and didn’t show solidarity, would that have implications on us down the line?”

While Ireland is an EU member state, our economy is deeply intertwined with US companies.

“The biggest threat to us isn’t a military one at all. It’s that we’re very much bound up in these systems that have brought us prosperity,” said Declan.

“The political loadsharing and the rule of law are the things that are giving us a framework which keeps us on the international stage of trade.”

This is not to say Ireland must prioritise the US rather than the EU, in fact the opposite.

“Solidarity within the EU is important for Ireland,” he said, especially when it comes to Trump’s erratic behaviour toward his allies.

“He is quite happy to insult and degrade countries that have been very close allies, why would he give Ireland a pass? I mean the Danes fought and died with the US in Afghanistan.”

Declan believes defence should be Ireland’s number one priority – that does not mean sacrificing neutrality but rather strengthening the relationships between Ireland and northern Europe.

“What if Trump decides that he wants to have a few sovereign bases in Ireland because we’re not doing enough to defend the underwater internet cables?”

That is not outside the realm of possibility; Ireland has 75% of transatlantic cables running through its waters.

“Any damage to them could cause severe detriment to US commerce and what could we do then?”

Declan has suggestions that wouldn’t require the country joining NATO or sacrificing neutrality. “If we’re proactive, if we’re doing what we can do to protect ourselves in our back yard.”

One step Declan advises is for Ireland to work with northern European alliances in patrolling the seas that Ireland shares with them. He also highlights the importance of Europe as a whole becoming more self-sufficient.

Minister Burke concurs. “Ireland and the EU have clearly recognised that a more uncertain geopolitical environment demands greater self-sufficiency.

“I recently brought forward a new strategy on market diversification, to ensure no Irish company is solely reliant on the US, or one market, offering support to research and implement market entry strategies in alternative locations.”