Taliban rebrands itself amid Afghan ‘dance’, says Power

Focusing on the details is key to understanding the recent extraordinary events in Afghanistan, defence and security expert and Mullingar man Declan Power says.

A couple of months short of 20 years since they were overthrown following the 9/11 attacks in the United States, the austere Islamist militia, the Taliban, have returned to power in the central Asian country.

The group ruled Afghanistan from 1996 to December 2001, cutting the country off from the outside world and imposing a rigid, medieval interpretation of Sharia law. After allowing Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden to hide out in the Tora Bora mountains, the regime was targeted and deposed by a Western coalition in the wake of the terror attacks in New York and Washington.

In ensuing years, a new Western-backed government oversaw the return of Afghanistan to the international community and an unprecedented level of modernisation and development, in which Ireland played a role.

However, with the US withdrawing its troops, the consensus crumbled, and a military offensive by the Taliban saw it regain control of the country at a speed that surprised the Americans. Much like their departure from Vietnam in the 1970s, the US left hurriedly by air amid a clamour of refugees.

“Undoubtedly, this episode is a blow to Western influence around the world, and certainly a blow to American prestige,” Declan told the Westmeath Examiner.

“I’m dumbfounded by how [US president] Joe Biden is trying to sell this. He’s coming across as a poor man’s Trump, in many ways.

“The Democratic Party hasn’t uttered a word about what happened last week. [Vice-president] Kamala Harris, Samantha Power, all these feminist intellectual powerhouses who are normally first out of the traps when it comes to threats to women’s rights, have been stunning in their silence.

“These are normally people I’d have good time for, and I’m kind of shocked by their moral cowardice.”

The resurgence of the Taliban, Declan says, means that women’s rights in Afghanistan will be rolled back to an as yet unknown extent. It means the end of any hopes of Afghanistan pursuing the Western democratic model, and also inevitable repression against elements who collaborated with or worked for the US-backed regime over the last 20 years.

“But there’s a bit of a dance going on at the moment,” Declan said. “The Taliban are displaying a certain degree of strategic awareness.

“It appears to be a different Taliban at the upper levels. They seem to be more interested in what the media thinks of them than they were in the 1990s, when they were totally inward-looking.”

Citing arguments by Irish-born Afghanistan expert Michael Semple and Australian journalist Lynne O’Donnell that the Taliban is still the same brutal organisation that governed Afghanistan during the 1990s, Declan believes that “the truth lies in the greyer regions”.

“The upper echelons of the Taliban have clearly come to a few sensible conclusions, and that the best way for them to consolidate their power base is not to have the Western world baying for their blood.

“As the West is as fickle as any one else, if the Taliban can present a veneer of civility that’s digestible, the West will do business with them, and then they’ll be in with a hope of unlocking funds from the IMF.”

The Taliban is unlikely to the sort of medieval “rogue state” it ruled in the 1990s, Declan believes. “Let’s face it, women are going to have reduced rights. People are going to be disappeared. But how the Taliban will do this will be a question of quantity and optics,” he said.

“Likewise, there will be a realisation in the West that Kabul has fallen, Afghanistan is under their rule, and nobody’s going to gain anything by NATO going in with all guns blazing to oust them from power again.”

As evidence for a sort of Taliban-lite, Declan points to the fact that Hamid Karzai – effectively a puppet leader for the US after 2001 – has managed to secure mercy from the Taliban and perhaps a continued role in Afghan politics.

“If Karzai and others who were prominent in the old regime are willing to trust this new setup, then it means something has happened in the Taliban,” he adds.

As Afghanistan is a country built on “complex tribal loyalties”, Declan believes that the militants reached out to these networks and built relationships with people like Karzai, who will “have a role and his security and status guaranteed” in order to provide “Kodak moments” for the new regime.

What will be the likely outcome is a totalitarian state with a “cosmetically acceptable veneer” permitting engagement and investment from the West – a sort of Saudi Arabia or Qatar, without the oil and the football teams.

“It could all still come crashing down if the hardcore, bloodthirsty traditionalists in the Taliban get tired of the ‘softly, softly’ approach, and want to return to the pre-2001 status quo,” said Declan.

“But Afghanistan has changed so much over the last 20 years, and it’s unlikely that will happen.”