Care challenges ahead as region faces surge in elderly population

The demand for both short term and long-term care beds for older people is set to skyrocket in the next 15 years - but especially so in the Dublin and Midlands (DML) HSE region, of which Westmeath is a part.

New research carried out by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) for the Department of Health, shows that the DML region is to see its population aged 65 and over forecast to grow by 76 per cent, the highest of any health region. The study, which projects demand for long-term residential care (LTRC) and home support across all six HSE regions, warns that demographic change, particularly rapid growth in the 85+ age group, will significantly heighten pressure on services in the DML region.

The 85+ population is projected to increase by 152 per cent by 2040, the largest jump in Ireland.

In 2022, the DML region had 4,900 long-stay residential care beds - but the ESRI modelling shows that by 2040, the region will require an additional 3,389 to 4,451 long-stay beds, representing annual growth of around 3–3.7 per cent, among the highest nationally.

In terms of short-stay beds, numbers will also have to almost double from the 468 short-stay beds available in 2022: the ESRI prediction is that an additional 337 to 444 beds will be required, depending on the scenario.

The report also highlights that DML currently has the lowest per-capita long-stay bed supply - just 34.30 beds per 1,000 people aged 65+, compared with 44.47 in Dublin and North East.

To bring DML up to the same per-capita supply level as the best-resourced region by 2040, the ESRI estimates an extra 2,338 long-stay beds and 820 short-stay beds would be required on top of the standard projections.

Home support demand will also grow significantly. The DML region delivered 5.0 million hours of home support in 2022. By 2040, it will need 3.3–4.7 million additional hours, representing 2.9–3.8 per cent average annual growth, one of the highest increases nationwide.

Per-capita home support provision in DML — 24.24 hours per person aged 65+ — is currently below the national leaders, further adding to future pressure.

The authors caution that regional data limitations mean planning must be approached carefully. Nonetheless, they emphasise that early investment decisions will be essential to prevent shortages and ensure equity across regions.

“Significant increases in demand and capacity requirements” are projected in all regions, but DML stands out as a region where demographic pressures will weigh particularly heavily, the report notes.